Beach in South Africa
hapterDear reader,
The integration of artificial intelligence (AI) and quantum technology will dramatically advance the medical sector. This will lead to unimaginable breakthroughs in drug discovery, personalized medicine, and optimized patient care. Precision treatments, enhanced diagnostic capabilities offer us exciting roads for a longer life as well.
Old linear models of progress in medicine and longevity will no longer be appropriate.
Our traditional backward-looking view of history suggests that the future twenty years of advances will be similar to the past. This perspective ignores the exponential nature of what is going on. AI transformation goes beyond adopting new tools; it involves rethinking the fundamentals of how health is delivered and accessed.
Potential for longevity enhancements is one thing. However, it is also crucial to acknowledge the legal challenges. Traditions and ethical considerations slow down these technological advancements. There is a high probability that rapid health advances will remain reserved for a small group of wealthy people. This situation is expected, at least in the initial phase.
1.The place of AI in health- and lifespan
I realize the risk that I oversimplify the complex health dynamics in my text below. Factors such as genetics, environment, and socio-economic status play important roles in health outcomes. Still I like to make the point that healthy lifestyle choices are a determining contribution to better health.
So painting with broad strikes, most individual lives look as follows. When engaging in harmful behaviors, like smoking, your health span will be about 60 – 65 years. Avoiding the five key areas also contributes to this shortened health span. These areas include food/drinks, exercise, stress/sleep, environment, and social life. The remaining years from 65 to 85 will be spent with an increasing amount of health problems. This sounds bleak, but reality for most.
To improve your health span, the recipe is quite easy. Stop the bad things! Pay attention to the good things. And have some luck of course, but your destiny is in your hands for 80 – 90%.
As I have written before, a first area where there is interesting potential to prolong life is with certain supplements. To name a few: Berberine, Spermidine, Fisetin. For all three there are serious indications that they can contribute to a longer life (longevity).
The integration of AI into drug discovery processes has shown promise in identifying novel compounds. These compounds specifically target the biological mechanisms of aging. This integration improves the efficiency and accuracy of developing longevity-promoting therapies, including supplements.
However, there is much more to AI, including the promise of adding decades to your life. Or even eternal life?
2.AI and longevity in the coming years
Based on all what I read, I am convinced that this decade will feature increasingly dramatic pharmaceutical discoveries. Nutritional discoveries will also increase, largely driven by advanced AI. By around 2030, perhaps the most diligent and informed people will reach “longevity escape velocity.” This is a crucial moment. We can add more than a year to our remaining life expectancy each calendar year that passes. Whether this would be a process without end is too early to tell. However, pushing the end of life somewhere in the 99+ would already be great.
But let me add that “longevity escape velocity” remains a theoretical concept and hasn’t been substantiated with concrete evidence.
3.AI and longevity in the wild 30’s
For the next decade a bold prediction. Nanorobots are on their way. They will be programmed to destroy all types of pathogens. They will also be able to treat metabolic diseases. Our major internal organs (except heart and brain) put substances into the bloodstream, or they remove them. Many diseases are caused by their malfunction. As we know diabetis type 1 is caused by failure of the pancreatic islet cells to produce insulin.
The future medical nanorobots will monitor the blood supply. They will increase or decrease various substances, including hormones, nutrients, oxygen, carbon dioxide, and toxins. This process will augment or even replace the function of the organs. Using these technologies, in some optimistic scenarios, we will largely be able to overcome diseases. We may also conquer the aging process by the end of the 30’s.
We will see; many see the paragraph above as overly optimistic or speculative. While advances are being made, completely overcoming diseases and the aging process presents extraordinary scientific challenges. There are also ethical challenges that may not be resolved by the end of this decade.
4.First examples of AI in practice in the early 20’s
AI and computational tools are increasingly employed to facilitate various aspects of vaccine development. These tools are used in the analysis of viral genetic sequences (ref COVID vaccines). This is a work in progress, as is the case everywhere with AI. Results depend on context. They also rely on the quality of the training data and specific algorithms.
AI algorithms are used to analyze medical images, such as X-rays, MRIs, and CT scans. Deep learning models can already detect conditions like tumors or fractures. Their accuracy is comparable to or exceeding that of radiologists. A UK study showed that new AI software is twice as accurate as professionals. It excels at examining the brain scans of stroke patients.
AI-powered tools are being developed to assist in diagnosing diseases. These tools analyze lab results, patient history, and symptoms to suggest possible diagnoses.
AI is utilized to analyze genetic information and other patient data to personalized medicines. We will see this in the coming few years.
AI accelerates the drug discovery process by predicting how different compounds will behave in the body. It has access to the 1000’s studies worldwide, something no scientist will ever have.
AI algorithms are used to predict patient outcomes, readmission rates, and disease outbreaks.
Remote Monitoring is on a rapid rise. AI is used with wearable technologies. These technologies monitor patients’ vital signs and health metrics in real-time.
AI will assist in identifying suitable candidates for clinical trials. It will help predict the spread of infectious diseases. AI will streamline administrative tasks in healthcare settings. Through Chatbots and virtual health assistants, it will provide patients with information, triage symptoms, and remind them to take medications.
5.Main challenges
Healthcare is “below average” in its adoption of AI, according to a recent World Economic Forum white paper. This is in comparison to other industries.
Adoption will be hindered by three main elements. These are not sexy, but extremely important. First, there is a need for new regulatory complexities. These must align with the rapid adoption of digital health technology. One has to fear that politics in most western countries will not be capable of adapting. There is a reason why Gulf States have the ambition to play a leading role
In the second place the current change management models are outdated and inflexible. In the third place the medical sector (with all respect) is traditionalist and not quick to embrace change.
Whatever change there will be, we will have to accept that a fundamental rethinking will not occur universally. Many healthcare systems resist change due to entrenched practices. Bureaucratic structures may slow the adoption of AI technologies.
6.Ethical concerns
Some have a strong ethical concern about equity and inequality. A common concern is that only the wealthy will be capable of affording the technologies of radical life extension. In the first phase, this will be the case. Nevertheless, when costs go down, new longevity steps will become available to more and more people. Just look at the history of the cell phone. First a toy and instrument for the wealthy, now there are billions around.
Living for ever is of course even beyond science fiction. Still, in AI circles, you already have ethical discussions about this topic. Not for this blog this time. Current understanding of biology asserts that there is no scientific roadmap that suggests immortality can be achieved. Extending by decades or more however seems increasingly in the realm of the possible.
On this optimistic note,
I remain, Robert, your health friend
Tafelberg, Cape Town